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An article written in the Washington Post by Michael Abramowitz titled, “Accuracy of Polls a Question in Itself,” is about the assumptions made within polls and how they could be wrong. The McCain campaign is complaining of how the national polls are inaccurate and making Barack Obama overconfident. The Gallup polls have been around for 60 years and hardly have ever been wrong, if anything the people of America are being inaccurate. How can you accuse a poll of being wrong, when every poll in the nation has about the same, stable results, Obama is going to win. McCain’s campaign has hopes of taking great measures and increasing their poll results, and they infer that this election will resemble 2004’s. McCain’s campaign is trying to say that the only reason Obama is up 15 points is because of the African American voter increase in the South. So what? That’s what happens when people like who’s campaigning for presidency, the majority should win. About a week ago I noticed Obama upping his television ads, about every other commercial was for Barack Obama. But recently within the past week, McCain has fired back and increased his television ads as well, butting out Obama’s. The final voting comes down to the several Swing States left, but from what I have read, Obama has a lead in most. I don’t think McCain will have a close chance of winning the presidency.

Election Post 5: Swing States

There are many reasons that there a still a few swing states in the Presidential election this year. Over the past few decades, people have become less reliant on political parties to base their vote off of. So it's narrowed down to the individual candidate's profile and what policies are most important to a person voting. In this years election, main factors that affect voting are: one, there has never been a black president, so people are hesitant to vote for Democrat Barack Obama, which should have nothing to do with his race; two, the Republican Vice President that John McCain nominated is female, and many American's fear that Sarah Palin is not qualified for the job; three, our ecomony is facing it's biggest crisis since the Great Depression and whoever wins President will decide on the course of action for the country, it will either be a positive or negative impact but that cannot be based on each candidate.

According to a USAToday article, the current swing states for the 2008 election are: Washington, Oregon, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, California, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Iowa and Missouri. It is said that McCain's "maverick" appeal will help him win New Hampshire and other states because of the number of unaffiliated voters. However, in the Southern states that are up for grabs, Obama is making a huge impression upon the large African American population, and those who have been unlikely to vote in previous elections. One struggle Obama has, especially in a state like West Virginia, is his inability to compromise with the working class whites who are a big part of the electoral vote. One surprising state that has voted Republican strongly since 1964, Indiana, is actually shifting towards a Democratic vote.

Election Post 4: Polling

When it comes to polls for the 2008 Presidential Race, the data is close but shows a lead for Barack Obama, with John McCain trailing shortly behind. Most of the polling data I looked at, from random polls on websites to actual News polls, they all compared similarly and provide a fairly accurate voice of America. The most popular poll I viewed was the Gallup Daily of Registered Voters, which, as of October 21st, showed Obama leading 52% to McCain's 41%. The Washington Post/ABC News conducted a telephone poll from October 17-20 with a national random sample of 1,534 registered voters. Even with a margin error of +3% or -3% points, Obama is favored more among American's than McCain. One of the questioned basically asked, "If the election was held today which candidate would you vote for?" Among those who responded to the poll, by October 20th, 53% was for Obama and 44% was for McCain; compared to a poll taken September 29th when Obama had a lead of 50% and McCain was 46%. For the most part, all the polls that are being conducted have had the same results and show an increasing or steadying lead for Barack Obama.
In the Virginia Senate Race, according to the Real Clear Politics poll, averaging votes from October 3-19, former Governor Mark Warner has a lead of 59% to Jim Gilmore's 32%. A poll taken by SurveyUSA from October 18-19, showed Warner leading greatly with 60% to Gilmore's 36%. In this race especially, the percent error of +3% or -3% will not affect the expected outcome of who will most likely win the Senate position in Virginia.

The problem with polling is obviously there's a chance of affecting an outcome of an election. For the Senate race, there may not be a difference since Warner has such a major lead and I don't think enough people would vote differently to push Gilmore into office. However, with the Presidential Election, since John McCain is shortly behind in percentage, there may be a significant amount of people who change their minds to vote McCain into office. Personally, I think Barack Obama has a strong and confident lead in the race, and I think he is more convincing, trustworthy, and reasonable for America to vote for.

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On October 19, in Baghdad, the Iraqi parliament called for American troops to depart by the end of year 2011. The United Iraqi Alliance is insisting that Iraqi government have more power in the decision of punishment for U.S. soldiers accused of wrongdoing. It has been observed that American Troops rarely leave their bases except for on official missions, so there are no worries for any legal prosecutions. Lawmakers in Iraq were trying to claim some jurisdiction on the rules of American Soldiers but the Pentagon insisted on having sole control over U.S. troops in foreign countries. Although the United States has accepted the compromise, the Bush administration has not yet set a direct date for U.S. troops to leave Iraq and claims it should be based on security circumstances, which will be worked out mutually. I agree that decisions should be made mutually and civilized; it would hopefully end the war peacefully. There is reason for other countries to control our army even though we are in their territory; they still belong to the United States. My personal theory is ending the war as soon as possible and bringing our troops home. It’s terrible that we continue to loose dozens of soldiers each day, especially for the past few years, and we haven’t really gotten any where.

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An article by Walter Pincus from the Washington Post talks abouts the tension between the Pentagon and intelligence agencies over building U.S. satellites in space in the future. Two important departments have traditional tension on this issue: Intelligence Agencies want to gather strategic information for policymakers and the Defense Department fathers tactical information for war fighters. The National Reconnaissance Office was once a secret agency and is in charge of designing, building and operating intelligence satellites funded by the national intelligence budget. A recent secret multibillion dollar satellite project was cancelled and brought to attention by Congress who's members voiced concerns over future U.S. intelligence gathering from space. This problem is described as bureaucratic which needs to set priorites on 'what intelligence is collected and by whom', 'which agencies will process it', 'how quickly it is turned into integrated reports', 'who sees the information', and 'how it is archived for later use.' This is a costly issue although the programs are jointly funded out of separate budgets, but is a major issue dealing with the future of intelligence. I could really care less and I don't think it's necessary to provide so much funding for exploring outer space.

Virginia Senate Election

Our local election for Virginia's seat in the Senate has certainly changed with the retirement of Republican John Warner who served five terms and has chosen not to serve a sixth. The candidates up for election are Mark Warner - Democrat, Jim Gilmore - Republican, Bill Redpath - Libertarian, and Glenda Gail Parker - Independent Green.

Mark Warner: Former Governor of Virginia; Chaired National Governors Association; Co-founded Nextel company; bi-partisan approach to politics

Jim Gilmore: Recent Former Governor of Virginia; Former Attorney General of Virginia; Recognized authority on homeland security; President of USA Secure; Former Chairman of Republican National Committee.

Bill Redpath: Chairman of U.S. Libertarian Party

Glenda Gail Parker: retired Air Force officer; Business Woman

A few of the biggest issues rising in the Virginia Senate are: alternative energy in which Warner is trying to bring significant attention to; offshore drilling in which Gilmore is arguing for; and Virginia Taxes in which both candidates have strong opinions on. Although Gilmore has a good history of cutting taxes, Warner's campaign states that Gilmore has used up almost $6 million of Virginia's budget.

Recent polling data has shown a clear Democratic favor with Mark Warner leading an average 59% to Jim Gilmore's average 30%.

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Robert Barnes of The Washington Post wrote an article about “Supreme Court’s Direction Hinges on Who Wins ‘08 Races; A McCain Victory May Tilt Balance.” The Supreme Court is fairly balanced with four liberals and four conservatives, and one justice in the middle, Anthony M. Kennedy. It is likely that if Democratic Senator Barack Obama is elected president, then three justices of the Supreme Court will step down: David H. Souter, Ruth B. Ginsburg, and John P. Stevens. The ages of these three justices are 69, 75, and 88; seriously way too old for important decision makers, so I would say it’s not a bad thing to bring in new justices. However, people are afraid that Obama might make the wrong decision of who takes new seats in the Supreme Court. Law expert John McGinnis states, “What you really want to do in reshaping the court is change the median justice.” Which also makes sense, to change up what decisions might be made, instead of just changing “one conservative for another” and etc. He also says in order for McCain to appoint someone closest to his “ideology” would be to nominate a woman or a minority, who would be more difficult for Democrats to oppose. I don’t think that is a good approach for choosing someone for such an important role as Supreme Court Justice. McCain claims he would appoint judges “who have a proven record of strict interpretation of the Constitution of the United States.” Although that might be the most important aspect of a justice, there also needs to be concern for opinions on the environment, economy, and natural human rights.