Election Post 4: Polling

When it comes to polls for the 2008 Presidential Race, the data is close but shows a lead for Barack Obama, with John McCain trailing shortly behind. Most of the polling data I looked at, from random polls on websites to actual News polls, they all compared similarly and provide a fairly accurate voice of America. The most popular poll I viewed was the Gallup Daily of Registered Voters, which, as of October 21st, showed Obama leading 52% to McCain's 41%. The Washington Post/ABC News conducted a telephone poll from October 17-20 with a national random sample of 1,534 registered voters. Even with a margin error of +3% or -3% points, Obama is favored more among American's than McCain. One of the questioned basically asked, "If the election was held today which candidate would you vote for?" Among those who responded to the poll, by October 20th, 53% was for Obama and 44% was for McCain; compared to a poll taken September 29th when Obama had a lead of 50% and McCain was 46%. For the most part, all the polls that are being conducted have had the same results and show an increasing or steadying lead for Barack Obama.
In the Virginia Senate Race, according to the Real Clear Politics poll, averaging votes from October 3-19, former Governor Mark Warner has a lead of 59% to Jim Gilmore's 32%. A poll taken by SurveyUSA from October 18-19, showed Warner leading greatly with 60% to Gilmore's 36%. In this race especially, the percent error of +3% or -3% will not affect the expected outcome of who will most likely win the Senate position in Virginia.

The problem with polling is obviously there's a chance of affecting an outcome of an election. For the Senate race, there may not be a difference since Warner has such a major lead and I don't think enough people would vote differently to push Gilmore into office. However, with the Presidential Election, since John McCain is shortly behind in percentage, there may be a significant amount of people who change their minds to vote McCain into office. Personally, I think Barack Obama has a strong and confident lead in the race, and I think he is more convincing, trustworthy, and reasonable for America to vote for.